Lone-Pigsty
0x420d7ad65e7b25957ee02fe7d338adb914d2544a
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-614.92
Realised
$-45.31
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
664 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-11.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
539 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET
236 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?
122 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8?
113 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-20.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1?
100 shares @ 59.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-59.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 8?
100 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?
100 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 8?
100 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-49.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$5.13May 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$7.35May 17, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$25.56May 17, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$25.56May 17, 01:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$12.82May 16, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.35May 16, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.35May 16, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.21May 16, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$5.35May 16, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$5.34May 16, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.11May 16, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$2.61May 16, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.00May 16, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.35May 16, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.35May 16, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$4.67May 16, 01:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.00May 16, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.15May 16, 01:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.12May 16, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.17May 16, 01:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $9.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 06:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 17:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.