Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.0K

Realised

$-104.51

Win rate

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 45

YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
6900 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-144.90
YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?
6420 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-192.60
YES
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?
3705 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-84.00
YES
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals
3411 shares @ 24.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-842.72
YES
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals
2600 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-884.00
YES
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Morocco?
1833 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
YES
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Argentina?
1692 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
YES
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score
922 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-461.00
YES
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-16?
741 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
YES
Argentina to score first vs. England?
660 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-290.40

Recent activity

TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz$2.06Aug 1, 16:51 UTC
TRADEBUYNational Bank Open, Qualification: Moyuka Uchijima vs Himeno Sakatsume$2.26Aug 1, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYCanadian Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Sebastian Ofner$4.12Aug 1, 09:18 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina$2.10Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina$4.12Aug 1, 00:09 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti$2.09Aug 1, 00:08 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti$0.62Aug 1, 00:03 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti$1.57Aug 1, 00:03 UTC
TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti$8.00Aug 1, 00:01 UTC
TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina$3.00Jul 31, 23:56 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina$2.16Jul 31, 23:23 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti$4.15Jul 31, 23:14 UTC
TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$6.36Jul 31, 22:32 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$2.30Jul 31, 21:57 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$3.08Jul 31, 21:55 UTC
TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$2.93Jul 31, 21:54 UTC
TRADESELLMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$2.64Jul 31, 21:54 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen$2.09Jul 31, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi Osaka$2.10Jul 31, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima$2.30Jul 31, 18:59 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity48 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 43
Avg trade size: $2.46
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
Last active: Aug 1, 16:51 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 14:38:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data