Jittery-Bagel
0x4274900506094b5e090cee69718af68213b416fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.5K
Realised
$222.53
Win rate
24%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?
1261 shares @ 37.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-478.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
1228 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-94.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
1050 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
687 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-81.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
655 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET
624 shares @ 67.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-418.58
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$1.91Jul 4, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Jul 3, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.07Jul 3, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$286.80Jul 3, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$286.64Jul 3, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$195.57Jul 3, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$195.11Jul 3, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$257.00Jul 3, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$256.90Jul 3, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$299.80Jul 3, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$102.66Jul 3, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$61.77Jul 3, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$32.94Jul 3, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$103.39Jul 3, 00:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$27.27Jul 3, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$62.10Jul 3, 00:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$16.23Jul 3, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$25.84Jul 3, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$19.53Jul 3, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$26.08Jul 3, 00:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $84.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 12:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 11:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.