Subdued-Bumper
0x42e5ca21784929315826a32bc850ad927fd4c9a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$13.77
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C or higher on July 13?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?
990 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?
642 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 27?
585 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?
531 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-26.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 10?
526 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27?
500 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 13?
431 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 25?
428 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 9?
420 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.77
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?$213.83Aug 7, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?$38.00Aug 7, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 7?$65.00Aug 7, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$1.09Aug 7, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.12Aug 7, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.12Aug 7, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$19.25Aug 7, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?$5.15Aug 7, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$13.35Aug 7, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?$7.83Aug 7, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?$58.74Aug 7, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?$6.46Aug 7, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?$24.24Aug 7, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?$246.61Aug 7, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.03Aug 7, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$2.00Aug 7, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$3.07Aug 7, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$1.30Aug 7, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$1.30Aug 7, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.81Aug 7, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $16.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 05:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.