First-Chili
0x4308f2a9e53848892df223eba8f81b045bd1ca6f
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$4.10
Total PnL
$-10.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
4123 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.1K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
3223 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
3221 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
1895 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-947.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
1894 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-947.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.00Jan 7, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?$1.00Dec 16, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$1.00Dec 16, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?$1.02Dec 16, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$1.03Dec 16, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?$1.00Dec 10, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$1.00Dec 10, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.02Dec 10, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the December meeting?$1.00Dec 4, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 24, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$96.00Nov 10, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$48.00Nov 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$15.69Nov 10, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$34.31Nov 10, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.2KNov 4, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.2KNov 4, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$1.9KNov 4, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$0.46Nov 4, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.46Nov 4, 03:39 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$0.00Nov 4, 03:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $641.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 16, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 7, 07:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".