Adept-Auditorium
0x4336e6207d23c8c7e910feee4ef2d438cc83344e
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-184.75
Realised
$-1.47
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 6?
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 6?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 4?
182 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 20?
176 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 22?
172 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 16?
167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 15?
167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 27?
162 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 21?
155 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 16?
154 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$1.00Mar 22, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.00Mar 22, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$2.12Mar 22, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.00Mar 22, 19:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$2.09Mar 22, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$2.03Mar 22, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.00Mar 22, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$1.00Mar 22, 19:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 11?$1.46Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10?$2.50Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 11?$2.60Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 10?$3.85Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 11?$5.14Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 12?$5.23Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 10?$6.25Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?$6.25Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10?$7.30Mar 22, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13?$0.03Mar 13, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13?$0.15Mar 13, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13?$0.25Mar 13, 01:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $0.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 17:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 19:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.