Complicated-Chandelier
0x434a356dfff4297587bd648e207723ffc55f5218
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
45134 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.3K
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
33309 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-416.40
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
25536 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-244.96
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
3872 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
3514 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-156.99
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
2914 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-712.45
- YES
Will Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30?
2553 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-140.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
2204 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-499.86
- YES
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
2157 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
2078 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$207.84Feb 13, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$199.78Feb 13, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$304.83Feb 13, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$45.00Feb 3, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$200.00Feb 3, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$249.86Jan 26, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$250.00Jan 26, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?$0.00Dec 16, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?$33.00Nov 22, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30?$40.00Nov 22, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30?$100.00Nov 22, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the Brian Kilmeade Show on November 21?$20.00Nov 21, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?$50.00Nov 21, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?$125.00Nov 21, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?$150.00Nov 21, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?$25.00Nov 21, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$30.00Nov 21, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?$30.00Nov 21, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?$28.00Nov 21, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?$25.00Nov 21, 13:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $93.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 13, 23:27 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 13, 19:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".