Fair-Tan
0x43cb4ae1f4ddc9e671486c79c9f40a6fd98b84df
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$77.0K
Total PnL
$-242.5K
Realised
$-16.3K
Win rate
39%
116 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
60000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$45.3K
$15.3K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
60000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 24.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.7K
$-15.3K
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
16836 shares @ 56.4¢·now 71.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.0K
$2.5K
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
17718 shares @ 7.5¢·now 13.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.4K
$1.1K
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
16433 shares @ 31.8¢·now 10.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$-3.5K
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
16510 shares @ 1.5¢·now 4.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$701.69
$448.95
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
16708 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$108.60
$-38.96
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?
9988 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$44.95
$30.64
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
16718 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.80
$-6.92
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
10405 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.81
$8.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?$8.20Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?$0.98Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?$1.00Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?$7.00Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?$2.60Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?$0.12Jun 18, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18?$6.25Jun 18, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18?$1.51Jun 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18?$4.12Jun 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18?$10.59Jun 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18?$0.01Jun 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?$0.01Jun 18, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?$0.02Jun 18, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?$0.02Jun 18, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?$2.52Jun 18, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?$6.48Jun 18, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18?$0.06Jun 18, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?$3.50Jun 18, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?$13.50Jun 18, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18?$0.45Jun 18, 01:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 01:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 01:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 116 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.