Wallet digest

active

Activity score

50/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-76.95

Realised

$-9.27

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 11

UP
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3?
23 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-17.82
YES
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 3?
23 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-9.50
NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 4?
14 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-10.62
NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 12?
10 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.80
NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 3?
8 shares @ 56.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-4.33
NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11?
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-4.55
NO
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 2?
7 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$0.00
$-5.99
NO
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 22?
6 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-4.32
NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on July 10?
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.45
DOWN
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-3.44

Recent activity

TRADESELLNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 28?$3.42Jul 28, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 28?$4.54Jul 28, 14:05 UTC
REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $335 on July 27?$6.00Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 27?$6.00Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
TRADESELLWill Meta (META) close above $600 on July 27?$0.02Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
TRADESELLWill Meta (META) close above $600 on July 27?$0.05Jul 27, 19:31 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $335 on July 27?$4.37Jul 27, 19:19 UTC
TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 27?$4.43Jul 27, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) close above $600 on July 27?$4.78Jul 27, 14:04 UTC
REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 24?$6.00Jul 24, 20:19 UTC
TRADESELLNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24?$1.93Jul 24, 15:31 UTC
TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 24?$4.37Jul 24, 14:04 UTC
TRADEBUYNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 24?$4.37Jul 24, 14:02 UTC
REDEEMMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 23?$5.00Jul 23, 20:22 UTC
TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 23?$4.23Jul 23, 14:40 UTC
REDEEMWill Meta (META) close above $630 on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 21:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 22?$0.04Jul 22, 19:57 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 22?$4.37Jul 22, 19:43 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 22?$3.42Jul 22, 19:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) close above $630 on July 22?$3.98Jul 22, 18:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $3.17
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 14:05 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 14:37 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:53:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data