0x43dc557028d7a3ee32ec3a97b534b4a150bb7a61
0x43dc557028d7a3ee32ec3a97b534b4a150bb7a61
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$2.53
Total PnL
$-12.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.32
$0.02
- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.21
$0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12?
1080 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?
1055 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
1055 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
1055 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 13?
701 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
439 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.