Sardonic-Leadership
0x43e3de4f1ff9f3b9a1ec7e4ae36ba0afce73329a
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-110.82
Realised
$-22.66
Win rate
18%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?
55 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?
34 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
32 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?
25 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- SWITZERLAND
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs Switzerland
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
18 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
17 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
16 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16?
16 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 16?$0.53Jul 14, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?$0.32Jul 14, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 15?$0.32Jul 14, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$0.96Jul 14, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$1.16Jul 14, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 15?$0.11Jul 14, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 15?$0.22Jul 14, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 16?$0.75Jul 14, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?$1.04Jul 14, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$1.35Jul 14, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$1.03Jul 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?$1.10Jul 3, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?$0.30Jul 3, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?$0.49Jul 3, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?$0.31Jul 2, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 2?$1.71Jul 2, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 2?$1.02Jul 2, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?$1.64Jul 2, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?$2.04Jul 2, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 2?$0.36Jul 2, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
55 closed markets, 18% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 05:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 11:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.