Wallet digest

active

Activity score

75/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

101

Open notional

$8.13

Total PnL

$-193.56

Realised

$93.03

Win rate

88%

50 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 101

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
17 shares @ 20.9¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$3.65
$0.10
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
5 shares @ 35.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$2.13
$0.38
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$1.47
$0.22
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.88
$-0.17
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
66 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-4.63
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
39 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-3.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
32 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-7.28
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
32 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-7.28
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
32 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-7.28
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
32 shares @ 22.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-7.28

Recent activity

MERGESolana Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$5.00Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.75Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.25Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.75Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.25Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
MERGEXRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$5.00Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$4.25Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.25Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.08Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.75Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.22Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.66Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.59Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.05Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.25Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$10.52Jul 6, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$12.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$4.99Jul 6, 00:02 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$1.05Jul 6, 00:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.58Jul 6, 00:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

78/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

88% win rate over 50 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

50 closed markets, 88% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 43
Avg trade size: $1.05
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 5, 23:46 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
Win rate sample: 50 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:08:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data