Gray-Purse
0x4412e85dfb1fff7cc323de2b35f8a3507973f7ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-31.83
Realised
$-3.69
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on June 18?
710 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 18?
220 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026?
187 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in week 1?
128 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- GHANA
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026?
107 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 56.5 million views in week 1?$0.00Jul 7, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Houston Astros (-1.5)$2.84Jun 24, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Houston Astros (-1.5)$1.92Jun 23, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Ghana (-1.5)$1.03Jun 23, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22?$1.39Jun 22, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23?$2.08Jun 22, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?$1.05Jun 20, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1?$0.52Jun 20, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1?$1.89Jun 20, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in week 1?$2.10Jun 20, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?$0.00Jun 20, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?$1.04Jun 20, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 56.5 million views in week 1?$2.10Jun 20, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 56.5 million views in week 1?$2.10Jun 19, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 56.5 million views in week 1?$1.63Jun 19, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1?$1.26Jun 19, 23:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.36Jun 19, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 56.5 million views in week 1?$2.83Jun 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.88Jun 19, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1?$1.05Jun 19, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 17:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 14:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.