Smart-Onion
0x444c5ce4239defab98aee92c554ed45623a99d2e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$963.79
Total PnL
$16.01
Realised
$144.39
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
527 shares @ 70.2¢·now 72.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$380.93
$10.83
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
400 shares @ 41.4¢·now 39.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$158.41
$-7.42
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
748 shares @ 27.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$138.31
$-67.91
- YES
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?
170 shares @ 60.6¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$85.76
$-17.12
- YES
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027?
103 shares @ 72.9¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$75.98
$1.11
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
790 shares @ 4.6¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.48
$5.04
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
80 shares @ 47.5¢·now 39.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$31.20
$-6.80
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
20 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.30
$0.34
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
300 shares @ 10.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$18.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.95
$-0.55
Recent activity
- REWARD$7.23Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$4.78Jul 23, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$5.21Jul 23, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$23.32Jul 23, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$72.00Jul 23, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$6.29Jul 23, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$32.85Jul 23, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$41.40Jul 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$27.00Jul 23, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$75.00Jul 23, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$68.80Jul 23, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$59.59Jul 23, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$70.60Jul 23, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$71.60Jul 23, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$43.00Jul 23, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$52.80Jul 23, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$1.72Jul 23, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$44.37Jul 23, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$10.00Jul 23, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$4.00Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $29.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 11:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.