Velvety-Castanet
0x445e39db08a0d8c8f4e0da1dc76b71aabcb72328
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$398.71
Total PnL
$-74.84
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of July 20 2026?
23 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$21.86
$1.43
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 25?
21 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$20.36
$0.44
- NO
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of July 20 2026?
20 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$19.63
$0.44
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 23?
19 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$19.18
$0.67
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 23?
19 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$18.75
$0.27
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 20 2026?
20 shares @ 96.2¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$18.74
$-0.45
- NO
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026?
20 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$18.37
$-0.82
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of July 20 2026?
21 shares @ 95.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$18.24
$-1.68
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 20-26?
18 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$18.19
$0.16
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 20 2026?
18 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$17.71
$0.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of July 20 2026?$15.95Jul 23, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 26?$16.00Jul 23, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 22?$18.97Jul 23, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 20 2026?$17.46Jul 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 24?$17.53Jul 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $152.50 Week of July 20 2026?$17.49Jul 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 20 2026?$17.49Jul 23, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Georgia?$18.33Jul 22, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of July 20 2026?$17.45Jul 22, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 22?$18.51Jul 22, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 23?$18.57Jul 22, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 22?$17.59Jul 22, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22?$17.37Jul 22, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 20 2026?$19.22Jul 22, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of July 20 2026?$19.24Jul 22, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026?$19.24Jul 22, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$14.36Jul 22, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 20 2026?$16.07Jul 22, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on July 21?$18.02Jul 22, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 21?$16.84Jul 22, 04:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $17.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 22:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 07:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.