Glistening-Sinuosity
0x4462d188cdb18cfa36d7a4434afd1fb600bab29b
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$123.32
Total PnL
$-365.79
Realised
$-97.49
Win rate
2%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 10 2026?
105 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$27.30
$-1.05
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of August 10 2026?
200 shares @ 6.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$19.00
$7.00
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 10 2026?
200 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$15.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
37 shares @ 42.6¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.86
$-2.80
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
32 shares @ 35.9¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.21
$-2.19
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$9.10
$1.10
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?
119 shares @ 9.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.76
$-3.34
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
62 shares @ 18.8¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.53
$-5.19
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of August 10 2026?
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.50
$-0.90
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
75 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.13
$-1.88
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$23.01Aug 11, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.01Aug 11, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.01Aug 11, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.01Aug 11, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.01Aug 11, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.05Aug 11, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.05Aug 11, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.02Aug 11, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.02Aug 11, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?$8.19Aug 11, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$7.41Aug 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$3.04Aug 11, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$3.04Aug 11, 05:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$3.87Aug 11, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.03Aug 11, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$8.61Aug 11, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.04Aug 11, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$3.08Aug 11, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.03Aug 11, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.03Aug 11, 05:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
41 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 04:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.