Infantile-Reservoir
0x446b858deef16f555dbd4d352495e174d27f132a
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$6.96
Total PnL
$-798.79
Realised
$0.87
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be at least $1.7B at market close on IPO day?
179 shares @ 2.6¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$1.79
$-2.84
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?
125 shares @ 2.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$1.44
$-1.94
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?
251 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$1.38
$0.88
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day?
268 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$1.21
$-6.37
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?
188 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.85
$-3.19
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?
196 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.29
$-3.57
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?
398 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-282.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23?
228 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23?
228 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-66.10
Recent activity
- REWARD$4.07Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?$9.50Jul 22, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?$3.95Jul 22, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?$4.56Jul 22, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?$8.55Jul 22, 20:01 UTC
- REWARD$1.81Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 18?$8.00Jul 17, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?$0.42Jul 17, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?$11.50Jul 17, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?$4.01Jul 17, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 18?$9.41Jul 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?$3.83Jul 17, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?$11.50Jul 17, 15:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.06Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$6.15Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 9?$2.51Jul 9, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 9?$0.33Jul 9, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 9?$16.85Jul 9, 04:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?$7.56Jul 9, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?$2.25Jul 9, 04:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $22.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 05:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.