Ordinary-Maelstrom
0x4477ade4cf30c9f29a88b7d008786a1732737ca3
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
160
Open notional
$4.09
Total PnL
$-557.96
Realised
$42.96
Win rate
68%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 160- YES
Exact Score: Club Universitario de Deportes 2 - 1 CD Tolima?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 40.9¢·exp May 27, 2026$4.09
$4.08
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
119 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
110 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
97 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
89 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
85 shares @ 17.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-14.54
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
79 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$3.72Jul 13, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.24Jul 13, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?$0.05Jul 13, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 140-159 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$0.00Jul 13, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Phoenix Flames finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball San Diego Event?$0.05Jul 13, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Romain Grosjean win the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix?$0.01Jul 13, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Joey Bosa play for Los Angeles Rams in 2026-27?$0.09Jul 13, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alonso Martínez win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?$0.06Jul 13, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$5.51Jul 13, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$4.92Jul 13, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$0.05Jul 13, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?$0.08Jul 13, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 140-159 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$0.05Jul 13, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romain Grosjean win the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix?$0.05Jul 13, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Shocking" be in the headlines this week?$0.08Jul 13, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phoenix Flames finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball San Diego Event?$0.05Jul 12, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Club Universitario de Deportes 2 - 1 CD Tolima?$0.01Jul 12, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joey Bosa play for Los Angeles Rams in 2026-27?$0.10Jul 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alonso Martínez win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?$0.07Jul 12, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$4.88Jul 12, 22:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
56 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 06:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.