Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$115.96

Win rate

80%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 85

NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
345 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-214.01
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
309 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-76.73
DORTMUND
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (To Advance)
272 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2025
$0.00
$-68.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
270 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-136.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
240 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$0.00
$-98.54
NO
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
239 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-148.31
NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?
205 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-135.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
200 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-95.57
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
160 shares @ 43.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$0.00
$-69.66
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
152 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026
$0.00
$-73.39

Recent activity

TRADESELLFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$13.09Jul 16, 19:26 UTC
TRADESELLWill FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-07-16?$81.60Jul 16, 19:24 UTC
TRADESELLFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$49.79Jul 16, 19:23 UTC
TRADESELLWill FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-07-16?$16.65Jul 16, 19:21 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$32.28Jul 16, 19:04 UTC
TRADEBUYWill FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-07-16?$63.18Jul 16, 19:03 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.23Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$2.57Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$2.48Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$4.86Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$37.94Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.16Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$9.19Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$29.85Jul 4, 20:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$40.06Jul 4, 20:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.90Jul 4, 20:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$11.08Jul 4, 20:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$48.67Jul 4, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$37.45Jul 4, 20:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$4.62Jul 4, 20:29 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

80% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity60 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry84 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $27.36
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 19:12 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 19:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:20:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data