Acidic-Merchandise
0x448245ea2271a56896696dbd647a3cefd4016c78
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-433.39
Realised
$44.57
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on November 1?
506 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?
200 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-3.40
- DOWN
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 11?
186 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-26.89
- DOWN
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 3?
160 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-8.85
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
159 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-13.72
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on October 31?
150 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-17.10
- UP
Solana Up or Down on November 1?
110 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?
110 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-4.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?$0.56Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% in 2025?$2.50Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?$11.77Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?$7.95Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?$3.42Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$3.50Nov 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?$2.87Nov 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?$2.19Nov 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$0.18Nov 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?$13.98Nov 17, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?$13.31Nov 17, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on November 17?$11.00Nov 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on November 17?$10.00Nov 16, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on November 17?$10.00Nov 16, 21:04 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on November 17?$11.20Nov 16, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on November 17?$13.30Nov 16, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on November 17?$11.40Nov 16, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on November 17?$3.32Nov 16, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on November 17?$9.40Nov 16, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down on November 17?$5.23Nov 16, 18:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 11, 21:11 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 17, 10:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.