Palatable-Mess
0x449ad4004ee9db41a4644af66474bb5c85e1eea1
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-24.26
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1?
3650 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.65
- NO
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
113 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?
88 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025$0.00
$-4.41
- NO
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?
22 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?$11.20Aug 25, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1?$3.65Aug 17, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?$4.41Aug 14, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUY Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?$5.00Aug 14, 13:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $6.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 13:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 25, 19:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.