Reflecting-Sunshine
0x44a0f91af2b1fb423a2e59a3bb7221141c346fbd
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$94.91
Win rate
50%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?
3586 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-381.09
- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
3395 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
2350 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- SUNS
Warriors vs. Suns
456 shares @ 83.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-379.24
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6?
240 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-33.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
222 shares @ 93.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-208.05
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23?
172 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-74.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
102 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- BILIBILI GAMING
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
98 shares @ 75.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-74.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.83Jul 20, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.06Jul 19, 21:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Henan FC win on 2026-07-17?$1.28Jul 18, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMIstanbul 2: Vera Zvonareva vs Lanlana Tararudee$2.67Jul 17, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-07-17?$1.01Jul 17, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud$2.01Jul 17, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIstanbul 2: Vera Zvonareva vs Lanlana Tararudee$2.02Jul 17, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Henan FC win on 2026-07-17?$1.01Jul 17, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker$1.45Jul 17, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker$1.02Jul 17, 05:57 UTC
- REDEEMNBA Summer League: Chicago Bulls vs. LA Lakers$1.39Jul 17, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMPozoblanco: Dominik Palan vs Izan Almazan Valiente$1.49Jul 17, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMGranby: Liam Draxl vs Daniel Milavsky$6.50Jul 17, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYGranby: Liam Draxl vs Daniel Milavsky$4.01Jul 16, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics$1.01Jul 16, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys$1.02Jul 16, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: Chicago Bulls vs. LA Lakers$1.01Jul 16, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYPozoblanco: Dominik Palan vs Izan Almazan Valiente$1.02Jul 16, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYGranby: Liam Draxl vs Daniel Milavsky$2.01Jul 16, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMIstanbul 2: Anastasia Zakharova vs Alexandra Shubladze$1.27Jul 16, 22:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 09:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.