Bogus-Castanet
0x44bee629254c70295e0d178962a72a0ffa1b4a02
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$185.03
Total PnL
$0.26
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Andrea Paccagnella win the 2026 Selvazzano Dentro by-election?
30 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$30.12
$0.12
- NO
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?
25 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$24.94
$0.17
- NO
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
20 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$20.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Mario Adinolfi win the 2026 Selvazzano Dentro by-election?
20 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$20.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Velichie win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.95
$-0.04
- NO
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.94
$-0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$24.77Mar 23, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Velichie win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.00Mar 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$20.00Mar 23, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Paccagnella win the 2026 Selvazzano Dentro by-election?$30.00Mar 23, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mario Adinolfi win the 2026 Selvazzano Dentro by-election?$20.00Mar 23, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Girona FC win on 2025-12-21?$20.02Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?$20.08Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?$20.18Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-21?$20.20Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$20.30Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?$40.20Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMGTA VI released in 2025?$43.78Mar 23, 14:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $24.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 16, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 14:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.