Conventional-Pouch-Shed
0x44d322f4d559a2bccad3b1ddad631ac82c04b247
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
159
Open notional
$52.37
Total PnL
$-145.76
Realised
$123.85
Win rate
27%
100 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 159- UNDER
Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 0.5
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$8.00
$6.00
- NO
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 96.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.20
$2.20
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
4 shares @ 48.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.00
$2.00
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.85
$1.85
- NO
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.84
$1.84
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 62.4¢·now 94.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.02
$1.02
- YES
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
4 shares @ 47.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.57
$0.57
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.53
$0.53
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$2.06
$0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$4.10Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?$4.17Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$4.44Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$5.71Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$5.88Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMKF Víkingur vs. FC Thun: Team to Advance$2.08Aug 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?$3.08Aug 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?$3.13Aug 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17?$3.23Aug 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$5.71Aug 18, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 0.5$2.08Aug 18, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?$2.03Aug 16, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 12?$2.78Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$2.82Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.3% in July?$2.90Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$2.94Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?$2.94Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$2.99Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12?$3.13Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?$4.26Aug 16, 05:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
66/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 100 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
100 closed markets, 27% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 06:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 14:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 100 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.