Sorrowful-Fat
0x44eceee3fb7c88d5baa38856cd1f558051cf0348
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-322.80
Realised
$-60.84
Win rate
0%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?
1042 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- OVER
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5
1031 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
234 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.54
- NO
Will Trump say "Giraffe" in May?
217 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 3?
183 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- YES
Will Levi Strauss & Co. say "Stock" 10+ times during earnings call?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Levi Strauss & Co. say "Inventory" 10+ times during earnings call?
40 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- UNDER
Lehecka vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5
40 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9AM ET
40 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-17.20
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLexington: Jay Dylan Friend vs Colton Smith AND National Bank Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys AND National Bank Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Anastasia Potapova$12.00Aug 4, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video?$10.00Jul 25, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video?$0.80Jul 25, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "America" during his next YouTube video?$1.44Jul 23, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Instagram" or "TikTok" during Big Brother E7?$0.30Jul 23, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Instagram" or "TikTok" during Big Brother E7?$0.80Jul 23, 01:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?$2.21Jul 22, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?$4.30Jul 19, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?$5.14Jul 19, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?$12.63Jul 19, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?$5.92Jul 19, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?$0.35Jul 19, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?$3.76Jul 19, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 19?$3.62Jul 18, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 19?$6.63Jul 18, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?$20.33Jul 18, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?$14.13Jul 18, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video?$0.07Jul 14, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?$0.80Jul 14, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?$0.28Jul 13, 22:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
47 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 21:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 20:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.