Clean-Sustenance
0x4501c869972fc6644e4f394b7cec9cfd85d639d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$183.80
Total PnL
$66.78
Realised
$62.86
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
2590 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.83
$-1.00
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
757 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.20
$-0.13
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
2135 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.01
$-0.02
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
3101 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$15.51
$1.74
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
913 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$14.61
$-4.32
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
2845 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$14.22
$1.10
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
2575 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$14.16
$0.68
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
2499 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$13.74
$1.88
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
2475 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$13.61
$0.14
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
43 shares @ 26.1¢·now 27.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$11.81
$0.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?$0.68Jul 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 17:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.