Surprised-Broad
0x4503ea6cbe42d987cd29cd3bd133b8e314b24474
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-135.1K
Realised
$-3.4K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
161372 shares @ 58.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-94.8K
- YES
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration?
70987 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2025$0.00
$-8.0K
- YES
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
57277 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.2K
- YES
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before 2025?
50101 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-10.9K
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?
37373 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-925.68
- YES
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?
14895 shares @ 66.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2024$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?
5019 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-250.82
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
3888 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-884.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Thursday?
3545 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2024$0.00
$-119.98
- YES
Will GameStop purchase Bitcoin by April 1?
2996 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?$102.36Sep 29, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$149.92Sep 10, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?$59.94Sep 7, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?$60.00Sep 7, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?$79.77Aug 30, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?$14.49Aug 30, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?$226.45May 25, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?$0.31May 25, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?$12.10May 25, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?$1.49May 25, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?$10.47May 25, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel $100.00Apr 1, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop purchase Bitcoin by April 1?$100.00Apr 1, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop purchase Bitcoin by April 1?$100.00Mar 31, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?$7.6KMar 30, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?$2.1KMar 28, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?$2.4KMar 27, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?$998.52Mar 25, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?$1000.00Mar 25, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?$0.28Feb 24, 23:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $836.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 29, 21:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".