Bite-Sized-Manifestation
0x4506d38b2ec805cf3453ba76f7ab33270c18784f
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-752.39
Realised
$0.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
61444 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-572.96
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
1558 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-41.30
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1358 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?
1295 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
556 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
133 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-30.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$29.70Dec 16, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$11.60Dec 15, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$50.00Dec 2, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMMonad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$0.00Nov 25, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMMonad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$50.67Nov 25, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$22.80Nov 24, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$20.00Nov 24, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$30.68Oct 30, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$30.00Oct 30, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$0.67Oct 30, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$4.00Oct 30, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$50.00Oct 30, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$3.50Oct 30, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$14.00Oct 29, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$4.50Oct 29, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$2.00Oct 29, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$1.95Oct 29, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?$25.00Oct 27, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$300.00Oct 27, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$40.00Oct 26, 13:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $33.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 24, 18:01 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 16, 14:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".