0x45162bb00c756a8d8f4f435893b3f19a3c57af0c
0x45162bb00c756a8d8f4f435893b3f19a3c57af0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$3.97
Total PnL
$-74.60
Realised
$-3.68
Win rate
0%
49 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - August 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.77
$-0.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 18?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 18?
1116 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.56
$-1.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 18?
173 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.09
$-1.91
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$2.07Aug 18, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?$2.08Aug 18, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?$7.38Aug 18, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.28Aug 18, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$1.05Aug 18, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.02Aug 18, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$4.17Aug 18, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.08Aug 18, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.83Aug 18, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.03Aug 18, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$6.12Aug 18, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$2.11Aug 18, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?$0.13Aug 18, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?$0.62Aug 18, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$6.13Aug 18, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$2.11Aug 18, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.07Aug 18, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.64Aug 18, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.06Aug 18, 09:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 49 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
49 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 07:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 12:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 49 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.