Compassionate-Guestbook
0x4533ce5689befaaa6e6a1e114b34508659a7374f
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-184.28
Realised
$-40.51
Win rate
7%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 26?
1900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 26?
1354 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C or below on April 26?
1031 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 26?
960 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 26?
950 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 26?
830 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 26?
824 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 26?
790 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 26?
785 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on April 26?
751 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 26?$0.00Apr 27, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 26?$0.00Apr 27, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 26?$0.95Apr 25, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?$0.32Apr 25, 23:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 24?$0.91Apr 25, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on April 26?$0.64Apr 25, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 25?$0.13Apr 25, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?$1.67Apr 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C on April 26?$1.00Apr 25, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on April 26?$0.96Apr 25, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C on April 26?$0.33Apr 25, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 26?$0.35Apr 25, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 26?$0.65Apr 25, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?$0.62Apr 25, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?$0.50Apr 25, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 26?$0.20Apr 25, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 26?$0.77Apr 25, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 45°F or below on April 26?$0.64Apr 25, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 26?$1.86Apr 25, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or higher on April 26?$0.07Apr 25, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
59 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 05:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.