Soggy-Rally
0x4577b2f57566383dfcd24f283868f8d711fdf436
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-882.86
Realised
$-440.37
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
529 shares @ 48.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-254.84
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.10
- YES
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
185 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-73.92
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
110 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-17.64
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
105 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-26.84
- YES
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
100 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
57 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$99.23Jul 3, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$0.10Jul 3, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$45.56Jul 3, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$13.57Jul 3, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Austria: Team to Advance$100.00Jul 2, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Austria: Team to Advance$86.00Jul 2, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$50.00Jul 1, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$50.00Jul 1, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$2.41Jun 29, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$1.58Jun 28, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$1.42Jun 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$6.60Jun 28, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$2.20Jun 11, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?$3.51Jun 8, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?$0.49Jun 8, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$0.55Jun 5, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$0.32Jun 5, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 4, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$3.00Jun 4, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$2.03Jun 4, 22:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $17.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 20:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 23:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.