Thin-Difficulty
0x4582349aaf692015b8b0f7c8af574d5165514fd0
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$180.00
Total PnL
$-9.71
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
180 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$180.00
$1.08
- YES
Will Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
670 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.01
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?
231 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
160 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-5.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$2.01Mar 28, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$178.92Mar 27, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$1.02Mar 24, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 19?$334.94Dec 19, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 19?$336.60Dec 19, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on December 21?$0.93Dec 19, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on December 21?$3.72Dec 19, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?$379.24Nov 22, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?$379.62Nov 22, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLEastern Illinois vs. Alabama$416.64Nov 22, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEastern Illinois vs. Alabama$417.48Nov 22, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?$0.68Nov 22, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?$1.02Nov 22, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Eduardo Artés win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?$89.81Nov 19, 05:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?$190.19Nov 13, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?$188.48Nov 1, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?$119.52Oct 29, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?$119.52Oct 29, 00:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?$190.00Oct 28, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $120,000 on August 4?$210.00Oct 28, 21:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $126.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 02:35 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".