Merry-Capitulation
0x45a18043c47ecdc6afd4b1c3b2bb26747015edc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$5.12
Total PnL
$-5.28
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?
2 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- YES
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
1 shares @ 94.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- RED WINGS
Flyers vs. Red Wings
10 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFlyers vs. Red Wings$5.40Mar 27, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$1.00Jan 31, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$1.00Jan 31, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.00Jan 31, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?$2.00Jan 31, 13:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $2.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 13:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 08:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.