Whimsical-Formicarium
0x45a481ed748c998ea432b68334842199909e75ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-26.09
Realised
$-1.09
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Belgium?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Egypt?
14 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?$1.05Jul 12, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?$1.00Jul 11, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?$1.00Jul 11, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$1.00Jul 10, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$0.99Jul 10, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?$1.00Jul 10, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?$1.00Jul 10, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?$1.00Jul 10, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? AND Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?$1.00Jul 9, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$1.00Jul 9, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10? AND Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?$1.00Jul 9, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 7, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Egypt?$1.03Jul 7, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 England? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Norway?$2.36Jul 7, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 2 - 3 Belgium?$1.03Jul 7, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium?$3.09Jul 7, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$0.00Jul 6, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Jul 6, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.96Jul 6, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.00Jul 6, 05:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 03:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 03:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.