0x45a904881e0b02ff2863742a99d05c86f530628f
0x45a904881e0b02ff2863742a99d05c86f530628f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-199.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 17?
500 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 18?
200 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2025$0.00
$-64.00
- NO
Will Dortmund beat Leverkusen?
145 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2025$0.00
$-88.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 21?
30 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2025$0.00
$-18.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-10?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2025$0.00
$-3.15
- NO
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 China Grand Prix?
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.55
- YES
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-19?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2025$0.00
$-3.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.40
- MIBR
PGL Astana: FURIA vs. MIBR
5 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPGL Astana: FURIA vs. MIBR$1.40May 15, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dortmund beat Leverkusen?$88.45May 11, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?$5.00May 10, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig?$85.00May 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?$1.25May 10, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig?$50.15May 10, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sporting beat Benfica? $51.10May 9, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brighton win on 2025-05-10?$3.15May 9, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sporting beat Benfica? $50.40May 9, 11:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?$45.00May 9, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?$23.40May 7, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?$31.00May 7, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?$30.00May 7, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?$30.00May 7, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?$14.40May 5, 04:38 UTC
- REDEEMRipple above $2.20 on May 2?$10.00May 5, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down in April?$5.00May 5, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRipple above $2.20 on May 2?$4.70Apr 30, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 29?$5.00Apr 30, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 29?$2.50Apr 28, 07:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $13.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 07:44 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 11:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.