Parched-Quarter
0x45ae3ba1542516caa7e0cafe361ff3ab49dd7eb4
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$8.44
Total PnL
$-8.34
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- GUSTAVO HEIDE
Milan: Gustavo Heide vs Alex Barrena
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$1.17
$0.07
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.15
$0.00
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.07
$0.02
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- NO
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 Week of June 29 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.39
- YES
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 Week of June 29 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$4.05Jul 1, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$5.10Jul 1, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?$5.05Jul 1, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$1.00Jul 1, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?$6.20Jul 1, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.05Jul 1, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?$1.00Jul 1, 09:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$6.96Jul 1, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilan: Gustavo Heide vs Alex Barrena$1.10Jul 1, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$8.00Jul 1, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24?$1.01Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$1.03Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?$1.06Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?$1.07Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings?$1.08Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?$1.09Jun 25, 17:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?$5.11May 23, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?$6.20May 23, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?$6.23May 23, 05:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $5.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 08:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 09:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.