Notable-Mood
0x45b8fa37644761f5092f7314c2e8f487d2c7339f
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-92.39
Win rate
3%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
1157 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-323.99
- YES
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
1044 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- IKUMI YAMAZAKI
ITF Maanshan: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Anna Snigireva
1040 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-189.31
- OVER
Belgium vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5
779 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-310.00
- HOUSTON ASTROS
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
710 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-159.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- RYOTA TANUMA
ITF Tokyo: Yuki Mochizuki vs Ryota Tanuma
399 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-85.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
390 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
280 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
279 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-61.91
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$36.71Jul 12, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$2.59Jul 12, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$296.36Jul 12, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Norway O/U 2.5 Corners AND Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals$100.22Jul 11, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$0.01Jul 11, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$25.69Jul 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$102.58Jul 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$101.05Jul 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$26.29Jul 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$103.96Jul 11, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$626.42Jul 11, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$59.52Jul 11, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$59.73Jul 11, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$129.77Jul 11, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$28.15Jul 11, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$41.36Jul 11, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$50.48Jul 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Gaston$51.22Jul 11, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5$50.61Jul 10, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5$26.13Jul 10, 20:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
61 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $70.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 04:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.