Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

148

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.9K

Realised

$-676.04

Win rate

148 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 148

YES
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on July 4?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
2036 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
1486 shares @ 48.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-725.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
1070 shares @ 49.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-525.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
944 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-375.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
940 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
849 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-450.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
828 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-275.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
763 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
752 shares @ 59.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-450.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$12.80Aug 9, 02:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$12.50Aug 9, 02:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$6.28Aug 9, 02:05 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$6.23Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$20.90Aug 8, 21:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$104.50Aug 8, 21:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$126.00Aug 8, 21:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$65.83Aug 8, 21:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$60.00Aug 8, 21:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$31.35Aug 8, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$95.37Aug 8, 20:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$95.37Aug 8, 20:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$94.69Aug 8, 20:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$322.52Aug 8, 20:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$4.24Aug 8, 20:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$98.53Aug 8, 20:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$93.81Aug 8, 20:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$91.84Aug 8, 20:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$93.67Aug 8, 20:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$379.04Aug 8, 18:33 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 148 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

148 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity50 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry77 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $74.23
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 8, 15:05 UTC
Last active: Aug 9, 02:43 UTC
Win rate sample: 148 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:28:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data