Failing-Employment
0x45ca722516f8ed6cd37b29a278e92ddd2aae729a
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$239.70
Total PnL
$-34.34
Realised
$-28.42
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
100 shares @ 72.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.50
$-6.00
- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
198 shares @ 31.3¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$61.39
$-0.58
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
93 shares @ 46.3¢·now 46.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$42.87
$-0.30
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
52 shares @ 29.8¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.55
$1.91
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50 shares @ 23.3¢·now 22.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.43
$-0.22
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
20 shares @ 53.3¢·now 54.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$10.61
$0.14
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
26 shares @ 36.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$10.16
$0.66
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
17 shares @ 43.8¢·now 39.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$6.72
$-0.82
- YES
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.70
$0.70
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
6 shares @ 48.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$3.80
$0.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$30.00Jun 26, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.67Jun 26, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.67Jun 26, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$2.00Jun 26, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.68Jun 26, 10:43 UTC
- REWARD$1.57Jun 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$13.50Jun 25, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$36.00Jun 25, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$11.93Jun 25, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$36.50Jun 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$13.50Jun 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$12.50Jun 25, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$33.50Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$16.50Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.15Jun 25, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$6.70Jun 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$22.00Jun 24, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$28.00Jun 24, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$9.50Jun 24, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$31.50Jun 24, 12:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $18.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 17:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 11:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.