Flippant-Canvas
0x45d8c384f6ae11a4479de2e6b4ab4d5dc51b969e
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.1K
Realised
$-15.65
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
6000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-21?
737 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
- NO
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
601 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-248.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
480 shares @ 64.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-308.28
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
455 shares @ 46.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-212.42
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
400 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
400 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
398 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-290.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5$20.11Jul 4, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$16.50Jun 28, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$16.68Jun 28, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$9.12Jun 28, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET$7.03Jun 28, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET$1.83Jun 28, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET$50.80Jun 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET$31.95Jun 7, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.03May 19, 05:42 UTC
- REDEEMGeneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen$1.14May 18, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen$1.00May 18, 09:39 UTC
- REWARD$1.08Apr 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$8.64Apr 25, 10:20 UTC
- REWARD$8.64Apr 25, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$43.22Apr 25, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$43.38Apr 25, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$26.47Apr 25, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$26.00Apr 25, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.00Apr 25, 08:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $19.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 06:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.