Honored-Nail
0x45db413e2871ded889ff642d2744da000ddcf976
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-490.15
Realised
$26.53
Win rate
6%
141 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?
1467 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 13?
1110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 17?
204 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or higher on May 14?
171 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NEW YORK YANKEES
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
125 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25?$4.40Jun 25, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 25?$0.11Jun 25, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25?$0.42Jun 25, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25?$2.49Jun 25, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 25?$2.58Jun 25, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25?$4.55Jun 25, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of June 22 2026?$0.10Jun 25, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 25?$2.65Jun 25, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25?$2.57Jun 25, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25?$2.58Jun 25, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 22 2026?$0.08Jun 25, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 25?$2.86Jun 25, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25?$1.07Jun 25, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 25?$2.56Jun 25, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026?$0.17Jun 25, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$3.05Jun 25, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25?$3.05Jun 25, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 22 2026?$3.48Jun 25, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25?$2.76Jun 25, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 22 2026?$2.75Jun 25, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 141 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
141 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 11:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 21:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 141 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.