Well-Worn-Smith-Insectarium
0x45e59843da64da15335fd53dfd5ba898acaa2d01
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.4K
Realised
$-316.64
Win rate
4%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
720 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-07-07?
495 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-64.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
434 shares @ 92.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- YES
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?
420 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-46.07
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
380 shares @ 51.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-195.77
- YES
Exact Score: Athletic Club 3 - 1 Operário Ferroviário EC?
339 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
336 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-199.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
333 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
297 shares @ 80.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-240.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
297 shares @ 67.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$29.53Aug 19, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$20.46Aug 19, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$5.27Aug 19, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$10.26Aug 19, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.35Aug 19, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.34Aug 19, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.33Aug 19, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$7.53Aug 19, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.22Aug 19, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$21.75Aug 19, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$20.14Aug 19, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$10.24Aug 19, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$13.01Aug 19, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$10.17Aug 19, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$14.29Aug 19, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$10.21Aug 19, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$22.02Aug 19, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$20.28Aug 19, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$10.67Aug 19, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$25.65Aug 19, 06:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
200 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $13.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 08:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.