Infantile-Coleslaw
0x45e7baf3547d9732e93fff7d8db0f05f7f1b3577
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
174
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-666.92
Realised
$1.51
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 174- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
150 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.25
- NO
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?
47 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.19
- NO
Will Trump say "Social Security" at The Villages on May 1?
43 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.15
- NO
Will Bernie say "Fight" in Maine?
25 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-6.20
- NO
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?
23 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.70
- NO
Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?
23 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.05
- NO
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
- NO
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
20 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video?
19 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?
19 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.25Jul 11, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Satan" in June?$7.86Jul 1, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Gay" in June?$5.00Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Condolences" during the next PMQ?$5.00Jun 24, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ?$7.18Jun 24, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ?$5.00Jun 24, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Europe" during the next PMQ?$3.85Jun 24, 14:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?$5.76Jun 24, 14:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ?$8.01Jun 24, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 18, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?$8.67Jun 17, 21:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference?$5.00Jun 17, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?$8.16Jun 17, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Traitor" this week?$10.62Jun 17, 03:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 17:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 23:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.