Wallet digest

active

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$-17.28

Win rate

16%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 35

UP
XRP Up or Down - November 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
4527 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025
$0.00
$-2.3K
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 1PM ET
1506 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025
$0.00
$-753.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET
222 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025
$0.00
$-111.00
UNDER
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
17 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-9.01
OVER
Jacquet vs. Bublik: Match O/U 38.5
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UNDER
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
15 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-6.45
UNDER
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5
15 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-7.79
UNDER
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5
14 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-7.44
UNDER
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
14 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-7.03
OVER
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5
14 shares @ 54.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-7.52

Recent activity

TRADEBUYAmerican vs. National: O/U 7.5$2.61Jul 13, 06:27 UTC
TRADEBUYFery vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5$2.77Jul 9, 05:47 UTC
TRADEBUYNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves$5.32Jul 4, 04:52 UTC
REDEEMSpurs vs. Knicks$3.00Jul 3, 05:12 UTC
TRADEBUYJacquet vs. Bublik: Match O/U 38.5$5.30Jul 2, 02:33 UTC
TRADEBUYJacquet vs. Bublik: Match O/U 38.5$2.20Jul 2, 02:33 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)$2.33Jun 30, 04:29 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)$0.80Jun 30, 04:29 UTC
REDEEMLos Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5$14.70Jun 30, 03:32 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5$4.33Jun 29, 02:49 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5$3.31Jun 29, 02:49 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)$7.50Jun 28, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)$4.11Jun 28, 03:41 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers$5.08Jun 27, 02:53 UTC
REDEEMSpread: New York Yankees (-1.5)$8.10Jun 26, 02:27 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: New York Yankees (-1.5)$4.37Jun 25, 03:31 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets$5.08Jun 24, 03:03 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)$6.91Jun 23, 05:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)$5.36Jun 23, 01:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5$4.44Jun 21, 02:16 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

51/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

16% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry94 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $29.06
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 06:27 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:06:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data