Cold-Nibble
0x4616f78c94c18e8432afce464a1bab2e18bb6565
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$4.83
Total PnL
$-474.40
Realised
$-14.12
Win rate
0%
84 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.78
$2.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 20?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.05
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19?
126 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-19.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 30?
102 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 25?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 3?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?$11.52Aug 20, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 20?$0.10Aug 20, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 19?$0.10Aug 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 19?$7.41Aug 19, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?$7.63Aug 19, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 19?$0.49Aug 19, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 18?$0.04Aug 18, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 18?$0.35Aug 18, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 18?$0.36Aug 18, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 17?$1.23Aug 17, 14:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 14?$32.50Aug 14, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 14?$30.98Aug 14, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?$1.95Aug 14, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 12?$1.38Aug 12, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 12?$1.46Aug 12, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on August 12?$1.23Aug 12, 09:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 11?$12.00Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 11?$1.13Aug 11, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 11?$12.14Aug 11, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 10?$1.20Aug 10, 14:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 84 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
84 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 06:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 84 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.