Disastrous-Lipstick
0x461ecfc0b8680022725a7dd8a9996f4707d89131
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-692.83
Realised
$58.59
Win rate
100%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
863 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-35.36
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
824 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-44.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
577 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
570 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-13.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
240 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.41
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
232 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
218 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
198 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
188 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-12.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.91Apr 7, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.14Apr 7, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.59Apr 7, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.30Apr 7, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.00Apr 7, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.09Apr 5, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.00Apr 5, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.46Apr 5, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.00Apr 5, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.20Apr 5, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.00Apr 5, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.77Apr 5, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.00Apr 5, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$2.85Apr 5, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$1.85Apr 5, 17:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 17:18 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 16:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.