0x463a41ee75aae62fbf2c19d9bdd0133bfec1af96
0x463a41ee75aae62fbf2c19d9bdd0133bfec1af96
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$848.96
Total PnL
$35.35
Realised
$38.96
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?
208 shares @ 42.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$206.57
$117.91
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?
144 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$144.11
$5.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?
48 shares @ 63.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$47.53
$17.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 2?
46 shares @ 81.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$45.33
$8.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 2?
34 shares @ 75.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$33.49
$8.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 2?
32 shares @ 39.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$32.21
$19.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 2?
35 shares @ 48.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$30.46
$13.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?
29 shares @ 53.8¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$27.04
$11.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 2?
37 shares @ 49.3¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$21.30
$2.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 2?
20 shares @ 37.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$20.22
$12.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?$6.46Jul 2, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?$0.84Jul 2, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?$6.25Jul 2, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?$11.21Jul 2, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?$2.13Jul 2, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?$4.82Jul 2, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?$7.49Jul 2, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 2?$0.31Jul 2, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 2?$2.56Jul 2, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 2?$22.03Jul 2, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 2?$0.31Jul 2, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 2?$4.85Jul 2, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?$38.66Jul 2, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?$28.22Jul 2, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?$37.69Jul 2, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?$10.19Jul 2, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?$21.69Jul 2, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 2?$9.56Jul 2, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $11.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 05:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 08:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.