0x46892d97bd150c1f32a6fe389fcfacd25535f393
0x46892d97bd150c1f32a6fe389fcfacd25535f393
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-265.51
Realised
$-140.37
Win rate
0%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on April 16?
129 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on April 15?
39 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 13?
35 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15?
27 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.81
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 15?
24 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 16?
23 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 24?
22 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 24?
19 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.27
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or higher on April 13?
19 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24?
17 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$0.00May 17, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$3.00May 17, 15:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.00May 17, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.67May 17, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$1.54May 17, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$2.59May 17, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$0.00May 17, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$1.68May 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$0.00May 17, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$2.20May 17, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$6.00May 17, 14:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$5.08May 17, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.17May 17, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.77May 17, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.88May 17, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.12May 17, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$3.00May 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.38May 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$0.35May 17, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$5.45May 17, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
61 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $1.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 12:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 15:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.