Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

131

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.5K

Realised

$-101.84

Win rate

130 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 131

DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
1707 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-700.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
627 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
569 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
537 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-145.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
409 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$6.25Jul 9, 22:16 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$6.49Jul 9, 22:11 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$5.13Jul 9, 21:54 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.17Jul 9, 21:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$4.59Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$3.97Jul 9, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$2.59Jul 9, 21:22 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.85Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?$149.63Jul 7, 19:31 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$2.13Jul 7, 03:46 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$51.29Jul 7, 03:39 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$52.25Jul 7, 03:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$31.12Jul 7, 03:31 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$50.65Jul 7, 03:26 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$67.18Jul 7, 03:23 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$51.39Jul 7, 03:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$51.97Jul 7, 03:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$73.53Jul 7, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$53.48Jul 7, 02:49 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$95.77Jul 7, 02:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 130 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

130 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $21.75
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 5, 19:10 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 22:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 130 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:16:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data