Zesty-Townhouse-Forum
0x469942b02c4f52e59979a2c3ab3292c54970695a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.89
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$-94.39
Win rate
0%
194 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 AI revenue be above $16B?
24 shares @ 33.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$8.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?
35 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.89
$-0.11
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
1019 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
563 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
150 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
150 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
140 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- OVER
FC Ordabasy vs. Tobol Kostanay: O/U 2.5
138 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-72.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?
136 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-39.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.01Aug 17, 19:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$24.00Aug 17, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$24.00Aug 17, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$24.00Aug 17, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$25.39Aug 17, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$1.02Aug 17, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$23.96Aug 17, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$12.41Aug 17, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?$4.00Aug 17, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of August 17 2026?$4.12Aug 17, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$24.00Aug 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$12.42Aug 17, 18:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 194 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
194 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 19:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 194 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.